Results Of The Poll

WHAT CORRELATES WITH ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT AS SHOWN IN THE RESEARCH?

Excellent work. Socioeconomic status, which includes both choices voted for here and excludes the choices not selected, is what correlates with student achievement as shown in the research.

To those who claim we need to educate these kids out of poverty (I'm looking at you Obama, Duncan, Gates, Rhee, DFER, Guggenheim, Canada, and the rest) I say, enough already.

Here's some data to back this up from Stephen Krashen:

Protecting Students

Shhhhhhhh! Obama Will Win Big, But Shhhhhhhhh!

Polls by themselves are dubious. The aggregate polls we have all been seeing this election are far less dubious due to the sheer number and consistency. But they seem to be tightening. I say, not really. Here's why:

CELL PHONES. Yes. Cell phones are not included in many polls. Who uses cell phones as their only phone? Young folks. Who are young folks going to be voting for? Obama. None of the polls take this into account (well, some do, and they predict a bigger win for Obama, like I do).

So, when the pollsters call, they are not calling cell phones, they are calling land lines. The polls are simply leaving out a bunch of data. It's not their fault, it's just true.

So, turn off you cell phone, don't answer any pollster's questions, and watch Obama win bigger than you thought, like I predicted a few days ago.

Morning Polls

From fivethirtyeight.com:

AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama

New polling this morning from the Big Ten polling consortium and Quinnipiac University present a view of what the world might look like if Barack Obama wins in a landslide.

The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13 in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in Illinois.

Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.

The thing to recognize about polls like these is that they may tell us less about the individual states and more about where the particular pollsters are calibrating the horse race. The numbers you see in our current state-by-state projections assume that Obama will ultimately prevail on election day by about 5 points. But what if Obama were to win by 10 or more points instead, where several pollsters now have the race? You'd probably see results which look something like these.

So the best way to regard these numbers is in the same way that you might have regarded the Pew poll from earlier this week, which had Obama at a +14 nationally. If you regarded that number as an outlier -- and I wouldn't blame you one bit if you did -- you should probably regard these numbers as outliers too. If you regarded that number not so much as an outlier but as a best-case scenario -- and that's how I tend to regard it -- you should probably regard these numbers as a best-case scenario also.

With that said, the trendlines in these polls are interesting. Quinnipiac has had a slight (1-2 point) Democratic lean this election cycle, but only in the last month or so have they started to produce some of these "shock and awe" numbers for Obama. And when the first round of Big Ten polling was conducted in mid-September, it had not been particularly favorable to Obama.

-- Nate Silver at 8:12 AM

Sshhhhhh!

Today's Poll From 538

The race is tightening. It may loosen, but now it's tightening. Remember to VOTE!!

Don't Use The "L" Word

That "L" word would be "landslide". Here is a rather reasonable warning from tristero:

2 Things To Remember

by tristero

Even though the great Nate Silver projects 347 electoral votes for Obama versus 191 for Bush/Palin -I'm sorry, I meant McCain/Palin, an honest slip - there is no reason to celebrate yet.

1. The lead is narrowing. Poll-freaks will tell you that this is normal as the election grinds into its final weeks. I say poppycock. Especially after the last debate, this election should be a rout. I see no reason to deem a "normal" tightening of the race as "acceptable." It is not. Admittedly, Nate's latest posted analysis of the slip in the polls for Obama provides reason for my left brain not to be concerned, my right brain is starting to worry.

2. Even if you believe that 1, above, is silly, unsophisticated, and unrealistic - a not unreasonable position, says my left brain - I hope you will agree with this: It is not enough for Obama to win. Republicans must lose. Big time. The more the merrier.

Therefore, it is important that we do what we can, donate (through progressive groups) to Obama and other worthy candidates, participate in GOTV efforts and, of course, vote ourselves. As previous races have demonstrated all too clearly, Democrats are extremely gifted at wresting defeat from the jaws of victory. This time, let us take nothing at all for granted.

For my money, Obama has not won until he is sworn in and Bush has boarded the plane for his trophy ranch and sea-ment pond in Crawford.

Today's Poll From 538

Today's Poll From 538

Today's Poll From 538

Can you see the fat lady?

Today's Poll From 538

Today's Poll From 538

Today's poll from 538:


McCain should just quit, because "That One" is going to win!